Fed Beige book shows early recession signals
Now FED fianally admits the economy fundamentals are slowing down..
So what is the BEIGE BOOK?
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and pros- pects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s sources.
In plain and simple words, beige book provides overall economic briefings across the states.
As we all know the FED and US gov refuse to tell us that our economy fundamentals are going worse due to high inflations and interest rate.
Now they are seeing the TRUTH…
For overall economic activity we are seeing half of districts(5 out of 12)goes flat or even negative…
For labor market we are seeing tight labor supply and several (the beige book refuses to tell us the ‘exact number’) districts are having problem maintaining wage growth…
As for the price sector we are seeing less spending in retail markets. Consumers are not willing to spend more and they are willing to trade down in quality and buy fewer items, or even shipping around for the best deal in market only to save more money.
Despite of the rapid housing price growth across the state we are seeing FLAT commercial real estate activity, which means on corporate level, business is not as good as we anticipated.
From labor market, some firms are bearing wage pressures, this indicates firms are bearing higher costs and lower revenues.
Job wage growth is nothing when we compared with 3% inflation.
As for construction sector, home market trading volume remains flat. With interest rate raising, housing mortgage cost has raised significantly.
Main stream media is making us to believe the US economy is strong. Now we are clearly seeing some early recession signals according to the FED BEIGE BOOK.
