What Lies Ahead in 2025?

THE “America First” Redux

The impact of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory and the resurgence of conservative policies in the U.S. will ripple across global affairs — from immigration and security to trade and economic policies. Trump’s “MAGA” agenda will challenge long-standing alliances, prompting both allies and adversaries to reassess their relationships with Washington. This shift may lead to geopolitical realignments, heightened tensions, and even nuclear posturing. Internally, political divisions will deepen within the U.S., exacerbating factionalism and fueling populist rhetoric as politicians struggle to maintain public trust.

Ongoing Conflicts: Ukraine and the Middle East

Many optimists hope that Trump’s return to the White House will usher in swift diplomatic resolutions. He has promised to bring peace to Ukraine “within 24 hours,” defuse tensions in the Middle East, and prevent a global conflict. None of this is likely to materialize.

Trump is more concerned with political optics than with actual peace agreements. Negotiations may occur in 2025, allowing him to claim he is making progress, but real, lasting resolutions will remain elusive — just as his previous talks with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un yielded no substantial results.

The war in Ukraine is far from over. Moscow has no intention of retreating, and Kyiv remains steadfast in its resistance. Meanwhile, the Middle East is poised for continued instability. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has strengthened Turkey’s position in the region, along with Israel’s. Turkey is actively positioning itself as a dominant force in Syria, filling the void left by Russia and Iran. Yemen, too, could emerge as another flashpoint.

The Tariff War Intensifies

U.S.-China tensions will manifest in a full-fledged trade war as Trump imposes tariffs and trade restrictions — not just on China, but also on U.S. allies. In response, Chinese firms are rapidly expanding overseas, building manufacturing hubs in places like Mexico, Hungary, and Central Asia to sidestep trade barriers and access emerging markets.

The European Union faces a tough year ahead. Trump has already warned European leaders that they must address the U.S. trade deficit — either by purchasing more American energy or by facing a wave of tariffs. As protectionism rises, Europe will need to adapt to a shifting economic landscape. Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss’s prediction of the “return of geopolitics” in 2025 may prove to be spot on.

A Fractured Global Order

The world will continue to splinter into competing geopolitical and economic blocs in 2025. Ironically, economic sanctions and trade restrictions will accelerate this fragmentation. Countries facing restrictions will forge new alliances, seeking alternative markets and opportunities for growth.

For smaller nations, the pressure to choose sides will be immense — not only in the Global South but also in Europe. Countries like Serbia and Slovakia will be forced to navigate an increasingly polarized world order.

Technology exports will play an even greater role in soft power diplomacy, rivaling traditional trade and services. Nations that can develop and export cutting-edge technologies will gain significant influence in this new world order.

Inflation: The Battle Isn’t Over

In 2024, central banks in major economies claimed victory over inflation. However, 2025 will present new economic dilemmas. Western nations will be forced to curb deficits, whether through tax hikes, spending cuts, or economic expansion. Meanwhile, defense budgets are expected to rise, further complicating financial stability.

Trump’s trade policies could reignite inflationary pressures, as import tariffs drive up costs. In Europe, economic uncertainty looms large. Rising military expenditures among NATO members — driven by concerns over U.S. reliability as an ally — will add further inflationary pressure. Energy and food costs remain elevated due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions, making it difficult for Europe to achieve stable inflation levels in the near term. Germany, for instance, is projected to maintain an inflation rate of around 2.2–2.4% in 2024, with no significant drop expected before 2026.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: The Investment Dilemma

For investors, 2025 presents a challenging decision: stick with the reliability of gold or embrace Bitcoin’s high-risk, high-reward potential. Gold’s historical stability makes it a safe haven, while Bitcoin’s rapid growth attracts those seeking quick returns. However, exaggerated media narratives — like Newsweek’s speculative claims of a $200,000 Bitcoin — should be approached with caution.

The broader investment landscape reflects the world’s shifting order, where traditional and modern financial strategies collide. The safest bet? Hard currency — whether in dollars, euros, pounds, or yen. And preferably in cash. In an uncertain world, liquidity is king.

Looking Ahead

As we step into 2025, uncertainty reigns across politics, economics, and global stability. The forces reshaping the world are already in motion, and their impact will be felt in the months ahead.

Wishing you all a year of resilience and adaptability.