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【桥水观点】我们对特朗普，美国巨额赤字及其对债券收益率影响的看法（中英版）
Following Trump’s victory, we assess the supply/demand picture for US debt, and what it means for yields going forward.
特朗普获胜后，我们(桥水对冲基金）评估了美国债务的供需状况，以及这对未来收益率的影响。
As government deficits have risen, both in the US and globally, the impact of government borrowing on bond yields has become an increasingly important topic for investors. Since Trump’s election win, we have seen even more interest in this question because the Trump administration is widely seen as likely to increase or maintain high fiscal deficits.
随着美国和全球政府赤字的上升，政府借款对债券收益率的影响已成为投资者越来越重要的话题。自特朗普赢得大选以来，我们看到人们对这个问题的兴趣越来越大，因为人们普遍认为特朗普政府可能会增加或维持高财政赤字。
To assess the impact of large deficits on yields, it is important to look at the total debt in the economy, not just government debt. This is because public and private debt (both as an asset and as a source of spending) are reasonably fungible, so what matters for markets and the economy is how much collective new credit is being created, and the incentive and desire of investors to buy it.
要评估巨额赤字对收益率的影响，重要的是要看经济中的总债务，而不仅仅是政府债务。这是因为公共债务和私人债务（既是资产又是支出来源）是相当可替代的，因此对市场和经济来说重要的是创造了多少新的集体信贷，以及投资者购买这些信贷的动机和意愿。
