深入解讀價值投資策略：The Ick Investment

歡迎關注我的網站(準備發佈第二版本:www.wentao.tw)

這幾年的交易中，我的焦點同時也在期權，包括了股票的戰場。對我來說這個是一個非常有意思的領域，而逐漸我逐漸在思考一個問題，究竟什麼是價值投資（Value Investing) ，那麼什麼又是深度價值（Deep Value)?

之前甚少著墨於此的原因在於，我不願意把文章淪為類似現在如同牛毛一樣鼓吹巴菲特，彼得林奇的入門級讀物。因為大部分這類文章最終都會跑去持有被動ETF或是乾脆銷售一些被動的投資理財工具。包括雪球也有很多搞不清楚真實含義的跑去買入茅台或是乾脆抱著工商銀行這類銀行股，因為他們認為工商銀行的資產非常龐大，因此應當全力持有這類股票。

如果真是如此，價值投資也太容易了點吧？事實上絕大部分人並不是在“價值投資”而是在“抱團”，或是在尋求所謂的彼此的認同感。如果價值是如此簡單就能夠找到，那麼滿大街都是有錢人吧？尋求這種Easy&Quick 的方法，一輩子都恐怕碌碌無為

近期國內的某個私募大佬又在說了一些似是而非的話我就不再評論。這類的路徑，固定思維的方式不是這個公眾號所追尋的，我沒有什麼投資流派，也不鼓吹什麼投資流派，我鼓勵我所有的學生還有讀者可以去挑戰，去質疑各種流派的可能性，我的功能就是一個引路人，我將新的觀點，你們需要的投資工具提供給你們，讓你們自己做判斷。

因為你們要依賴這個技能一輩子，就像一個老獵人不可能手把手帶著獵人學徒去獵殺獵物，我也沒有這個精力去保證什麼“絕對掙錢”這些都是騙術而已。在投資/交易路上所有的人要獲得真正長期成功，絕非容易的事情，絕對不是什麼你今天買了茅台，第二天賣出這種把戲。

如果是這種投機僥倖的觀點，那麼一輩子也只能夠賺點零花錢唱唱K做做大保健而已。訂閱我的公眾號的讀者基本上都是受夠了流量媒體那種帶風向，然後撿來的那種easy idea，這個公眾號基本上涵蓋大量的硬貨和乾貨，也希望更多的人能夠加入我們的平台，長期成為真正獨立思考的個體，足夠強大的硬核投資者。你們的轉發分享都是對我的鼓勵，越多的人加入到這個平台，就越多了做好了真正學習投資和交易的準備。

今天我想寫的就是ICK investing, 這個是由2008年做空次貸衍生品的投資大師Michael Burry “創造”的詞彙， ick 的意思很簡單，就是厭惡，這個很多朋友都有這樣的感覺，那就是你花了很多錢打賞，然後終於把一個網紅約了出來，然後開始約會，突然一下你發現其實眼前這個女生你並沒有這麼喜歡，在她厚厚的粉底加上層層濾鏡下你感到噁心，你覺得還不如關燈那個啥。

Ick investing 其實是Michael 用來描述那些你光看股票名字就覺得非常掃興，甚至完全提不起興趣投資的那類股票，距離來說，Chipotle這個互聯網賣墨西哥捲餅的美股(捲餅之神）的股價來到了1506美金，堪比食品界的亞馬遜。而大多數股票投資者首先看到Chipotle這個難唸的南美名字根本就不想碰類似的股票，再者又不是搞什麼先進技術的公司，缺乏嗨點，這類股票被Michael非常形像生動地形容為“ICK stocks”

這個就是icking，我們可以通過閱讀Michael Burry 寫給投資者的信中了解他對於ICK investing 的認知和理解。閱讀著名投資者的信件非常重要，這些郵件中聰明的投資者能夠發現真正有意思，有幫助的大量信息。

One reason that several of the Fund’s illiquid common stocks fell during the quarter is that many value managers, who might hold similar stocks, saw the opportunity to “upgrade” their portfolios during mid-late September. That is, acting on the fact that larger, well-known companies were recently trading at steep discounts to historical prices, portfolio managers dumped their illiquid, ignominious stocks and rushed into these more popular but depressed stocks. The phrase “I am upgrading my portfolio” became one I heard frequently among fellow portfolio managers as September came to a close.

(我們基金SCION Capital) 該季度幾隻流動性低的普通股下跌的原因之一是，許多可能持有相似股票的價值投資的對沖基金經理在9月中旬看到了機會，可以“升級”他們的投資組合。就是說，基於大型知名公司最近以相對歷史價格大幅折價交易的事實，投資組合經理拋棄了缺乏流動性的，不受歡迎的股票，並一股腦買入了這些更受歡迎但表現蕭條的股票中。隨著9月即將結束，“我正在升級我的投資組合”這一短語在我的投資組合經理中經常聽到。

In order to apply this technique to the Fund’s portfolio, the existing securities and the securities to which one might upgrade, would have to come to some sort of equilibrium in terms of value offered. This most certainly has not been the case, at least not on any widespread basis. Indeed, the very fact so many investors acted rather eagerly to upgrade has recently pushed the value differential that much further in favor of current portfolio holdings. As a result, the time to exit such positions is certainly not the present.

為了將這種投資技術應用於基金的投資組合，現有證券和可能被升級的證券必須在提供的價值上達到某種平衡。事實並非如此，至少不是在任何廣泛的基礎上。的確，許多投資者急切地採取行動來升級他們自身的投資組合這一事實，最近將價值差異進一步推向了有利於當前投資組合持有的位置。結果，退出這些頭寸的時間肯定不是現在。

Another issue I have with this sort of thinking is probably best summarized by the word “Ick.” Ick investing means taking a special analytical interest in stocks that inspire a first reaction of “ick.” I tend to become interested in stocks that by their very names or circumstances inspire an unwillingness — and an “ick” accompanied by a wrinkle of the nose — on the part of most investors to delve any further. In all probability, such stocks will prove fertile ground for the rare neglected deep value situations that could provide significant returns with minimal risk, and minimal correlation with the broad market. Occasionally, well-known stocks fall into the “ick” category, and it is at those times that I become interested.

我對這類投資現像有另一種思考，最好用“ Ick”一詞來概括。所謂的風險投資是指對股票產生特別的分析興趣，以激發對“投資收益”的第一反應。傾向於對股票產生興趣，這些股票的名字或情況會激發大多數投資者不願進一步交易的不願-並且伴隨著鼻子的皺紋而產生“惡意”。此類股票極有可能成為罕見的被忽視的深價值（DEEP VALUE) 情況的沃土，這種情況可以以最小的風險提供最小的收益，並且與大盤的相關性最小。有時候，知名股票會屬於“壞資產”類別，而往往在這個關鍵轉折發生時，我變得很感興趣。

Finally, I suspect that many who are actively upgrading their portfolios are doing so because they fear missing either a major market rally or the next bull market. With stocks in general having come down fairly far, the feeling a bottom is near may be fairly pervasive. The optimal way to participate in a market rally, by definition, is to buy the better-known stocks that either are in the major indices or are comparable to those that make up the indices.

而最終，我嚴重懷疑許多積極升級其投資組合的基金經理之所以這樣做，是因為他們擔心錯過主要市場反彈或下一個牛市。總體而言，由於股票下跌幅度很大，股票價格觸底的感覺可能很普遍。根據常態的市場操作來說，參與市場反彈的最佳方式是購買主要指數中的或與構成指數的股票具有可比性的知名股票。

However, doing so exposes one to the risk that one is wrong on the direction of the market. To my knowledge, such a hazard has proven notoriously difficult to avoid. In any case, the goal, always, of intelligent investing is not to mimic the market but rather to outmaneuver the market.

但是，這樣做會使投資者面臨在市場方向上錯了的風險。據我所知，眾所周知，這種方向性的市場危險很難避免。無論如何，更為富有智慧投資的策略始終不是維持甚至單方面模仿市場表現（標普500），而是超越大盤的走勢。

This is not to say that I am not a fan of larger, well-run businesses with fantastic economic characteristics and durable competitive advantage. I have a list of about eighty or so stocks that represent businesses with very decent and predictable long-term business characteristics.

這並不是說我不喜歡具有出色經濟特徵和持久競爭優勢的大型經營良好的企業。我列出了大約八十隻左右的股票，這些股票代表著具有良好體面和可預測的長期業務特徵的業務。

At the right price, I would like to include any one or more of these stocks in the Fund. Of course, what I consider the right price seems ridiculously low given where most of these stocks have been priced in recent years. When these stocks come to my prices, then I will consider adding them to the Fund. But only because they represent absolute value, and not because of any desire to “upgrade the portfolio” into either more palatable or more market responsive stocks.

我想以適當的價格將其中任何一隻或多隻股票納入基金。當然，鑑於近年來這些股票中大多數已定價，因此我認為合適的價格似乎低得離譜（絕佳買入機會）。當這些股票達到我的價格時，我將考慮將它們添加到基金中。但這僅僅是因為它們代表了絕對價值（Absolute Value)，而不是因為有任何將“投資組合”升級為更具吸引力或更具市場反應力的股票的願望。

Also on this subject, I should note that recently, as many well-known companies saw their stocks fall drastically, a select few made it to my buy prices. Those that did were added to the portfolio on the sole criterion of absolute value. The vast majority of popular stocks continue to be valued as popular stocks rather than as real businesses. Certainly, in the broader market, many stock prices overestimate the permanence of the underlying businesses.

同樣，在這個問題上，我應該指出，最近，由於許多知名公司的股票價格急劇下降，因此有少數公司股票達到了我的買入價。那些按絕對值唯一的標準添加到投資組合中的投資組合。絕大多數受歡迎的股票繼續被視為受歡迎的股票，而他們並不會反應出其業務能力以及結構的真實性。當然，在大盤中，許多股票價格高估了基礎業務的持久性甚至是盈利。

Summary

總結

As I have noted in previous letters, I will always choose the dollar bill carrying a wildly fluctuating discount rather than the dollar bill selling for a quite stable premium. This will often result in surprising quarterly results. To the extent prudent, I will attempt to explain surprising results when they occur. During the third quarter we saw an attempt to buy a cheap security become a process of averaging down into what is now, apparently, the most undervalued security available on any exchange. We saw investors start to dump illiquid small capitalization stocks using an order process that may be summarized as “Just get me out of this stock!” And to top it off, we saw a human tragedy of rare proportion directly and negatively impact the market values of several of the largest portfolio holdings of the Fund — with surprisingly little offset.

正如我在前幾封信中指出的那樣，我將始終選擇具有大幅波動的折扣的投資標的物，而不是以相當穩定的溢價出售我手上的投資標的物。這通常會導致令投資者驚訝甚至是反复無常的（基金）季度業績。在審慎的基礎上，我將嘗試解釋本季度基金表現出現巨大反复的原因。在第三季度，我們看到了嘗試投資者購買廉價股票的過程，而這樣的極端表現最終導致了現狀（股價低迷）的發生。這批我所購入的股票現在顯然是任何交易所中價值最低的證券。我們看到投資者開始使用一種固定的方式過程來大量拋售那些缺乏流動性的小資本化股票，該拋售的過程可以概括為“只要讓我擺脫這隻股票，我什麼價格都願意接受！”最重要的是，我們看到一場罕見的認為的市場拋售悲劇直接影響了該基金幾個最大的投資組合持股的市值-幾乎沒有抵消。

Thus, a confluence of happenings seems to have knocked the Fund for a decent price decline in just three months time. However, my entire net worth resides alongside your investment in the Fund, and I neither bemoan these recent short-run declines nor fear long-term impairment of my net worth. On the contrary, I am enthused that the market is offering up values on a scale not seen previously during the Fund’s existence. Moreover, the Fund holds significant cash and sources of cash to put to work in such an environment.

因此，各種事件的匯合似乎使該基金在短短三個月時間內就出現了價格大幅下跌的情況。但是，我的全部淨資產與基金投資者在該基金的投資都是一樣的（咱們都是一條船上的），我既不為最近的短期下跌感到痛惜，也不擔心我的淨資產遭受長期損失。相反，我很高興市場提供的價值達以及機會到了基金成立以來從未見過的規模。此外，我們的基金SCION CAPITAL如今持有大量現金和現金來源，我非常高興能夠在這種環境下投入工作。

從Michael 的投資邏輯來看，他非常偏好這類被人“忽視”同時被“低估”的股票，而我們先前寫道的GameStop遊戲驛站中，同時他也認為這個GameStop也是難得的ICK STOCKS

下此我們會更深入理解更多有意思的價值投資邏輯以及框架。

不僅僅只是全球宏觀而已，未來我將進一步寫下我對於加密貨幣以及區塊鏈應用技術的思考。請加入我們的全球投資者社區。